The prices for the real estate lay down on a bottom. What shall Tajikistan wait for? 10.11.2008 13:48 Author: Tajikistan: an economic perspective, # 10 (63)
Hurricane of the world financial crisis promptly “blows off” the prices for the real estate. All over the world the curve of deprecication of habitation is observed. And if in the separate countries the market of the real estate falls rather slowly the prices promptly plunge on a bottom in others. It is a high time to invest favourably, experts are convinced.
In the USA, the Europe, Russia and some CIS countries after the long period of a rise in prices on the real estate on a background of universal financial crisis there has stepped stagnation.
In the USA 15-20 % deprecication of habitation are observed, in the countries of the European Union the greatest reduction of prices in a range of 20-40 % is observed in Latvia and Estonia, 5-10 % of reduction is observed in such countries as: Portugal, Malta, Norway, France, Spain, Greece, and Luxembourg. In other countries of the Europe deprecication of the real estate is noted within the limits of 1-2 %.
The panic condition which reigns recently in the world financial markets, promotes to negative dynamics almost in all segments and the Russian real estate.
According to the largest realtor portals of Moscow, only during from 20th till 27th October, 2008 on 0,13 % have fallen in price square meters in panel houses, having shown result in $6 597 for square meter. Block houses also have a negative parameter: - 0,43 % ($6 931for a square meter). The habitation in brick houses became cheaper on 0,07 %, one square meter has made $8,158 thousand, and new buildings (-0,2 %), too have decreased in the price up to $6 436 and $5 846 for 1 square meter. The unique segment, which had the positive tendency for a week (+0,17 %), is Stalin houses, here cost of apartments has reached a price mark in $8 418 for a square meter.
On the average, cost of 1 square meter in Moscow has made for October $6114.
At the same time analysts of the Russian market of the real estate predict though also insignificant, but reduction of prices on habitation. According to the analytical center IRN.ru, up to the end of the year stagnation of the market of the real estate will proceed, and the prices will fall at least on 5 - 15 %. Experts remind of changes in sphere of hypothecary crediting, about possible decrease in rates of construction and about expected surplus of offers.
The prices for the inhabited real estate in Russia can decrease on 10 - 25 % as a result of the world financial crisis, - such forecast on October, 20th at conference “Banks, realtors, builders: for to wait from a present financial situation” has given the chairman of board of directors of corporation “Miel-Nedvizhimost” Grigory Kulikov.
The volume of demand for the inhabited real estate in the Russian Federation in October, 2008 as a result of the world financial crisis has decreased on the average on 40 - 60 %, explains the vice-president of Association of builders of Russia Vladimir Ponomarev.
“On the average across Russia we mark decrease in volume of demand for habitation on 40-60 %. According to Ponomarev, now there are many scripts of the further development of the market of habitation in Russia, and it is very difficult to give the exact forecast of events.
“I think, that there will be a certain falling in prices for habitation in Russia, but not really big. The government spends great strengths for positive development of a situation, therefore I do not predict sharp falling of the prices for habitation”, - he has concluded.
However, most of all “has failed” the market of the real estate in Kazakhstan. In opinion of analysts, here the price bottom is already reached. As the largest business paper “RBK Central Asia” informs, “in Almaty from the beginning of crisis the cheap segment has lost 43,4 %, expensive - 39,7 %, in Astana - 22,9 % and 22,7 %”. One of Kazakhstan realtor companies “Umex realty” falling of the prices in the market of the real estate estimated in 50 %. So, in Almaty one-bedroom “khrushev apartments” behind outside of “a gold square” have stood on a mark of $35 - $40 thousand. Though several months ago they reached $70 - 80 thousand.
On the average cost of 1 square meter in Almaty according to October, 1st was estimated from $1600 up to $2000, while for the similar period of the last year it reached $2500 - $3000 for a square meter.
The market now is pending a push - that comprehension, that the prices have reached a so-called bottom. Many will rush to buy that already for a long time have looked after, - “Invers Realty” comments on a situation in the Kazakhstan Company.
And what we have?
The Tajik experts mark, that crisis has bypassed pricing in Tajikistan. In the market of the real estate, there are no any changes.
As an information-analytical portal “Asia-Realty.ru” writes referring to the expert of a realtor company “Somon” Zhyldyz Duyshenova, in the market of the real estate of Dushanbe within October the stable rise in prices which has made on results of the month 2-3 % was observed.
Still, one-bedroom apartments are in greatest demand. That is caused by low solvency of the population. Many families presume themselves purchase only a one-bedroom apartment.
“Cost of one square meter in an one-bedroom apartment in area 82 or 33 micrirayon, today make 1480 $. Depending on area the price strongly varies. In 91 mocrorayon cost of one square meter in the same one-bedroom apartment adds 15-25 %. Average cost of a square meter in the center already begin from $1800 - $2000”, - comments on situation Zh. Duyshenova.
In total for the first half-year, by estimations of Dushanbe realtor companies, the rise in prices on the real estate has made about 15-20 %.
Possibly, the prices on Dushanbe real estate have not reacted to universal fluctuation, first of all, owing to backwardness of the mortgage. The basic factor of a proceeding growth is deficiency of habitation. Quantity wishing to get the real estate and to improve the living conditions invariable grows. Volumes of housing construction are insufficient for satisfaction of demand it is in the long term and will define a rise in prices on the real estate not only in Dushanbe, but across Tajikistan. However, under forecasts of experts, the rise in prices will be prolonged approximately before spring. Since spring and till autumn of 2009 in the market of the real estate of Tajikistan, probably, "stagnation", that is connected with seasonal outflow of migrants on earnings and, accordingly, with reduction in demand will be established.
According to Tajik realtors, today private houses with the land area are under demand. The average price in the capital on scheduled houses with the land varies from 100 thousand up to half a million dollars.
Outside the capital prices for the real estate noticeably decrease. In 20 kilometers from Dushanbe the house of the average sizes with the land area can be bought for $40-70 thousand. Exception is only “Tajik Rublevka” (the beginning of a highway Dushanbe-Gissar) and picturesque Varzob gorge. Here the price for a house with a land varies from $7 to 10 thousand. And it is not a limit. With the end of reconstruction of a highway Dushanbe-Chanak the prices for the real estate in Varzob, under forecasts, will grow at least twice.
In opinion of an analyst of the market of the real estate, economist Bakhrom Umarov, October, November is the best time for investments of means in the real estate in Russia and Kazakhstan.
- Demand sharply falls, the prices vary. It is a high time to favourably invest the money as by the spring, by estimations of analysts, the prices for the real estate again will be in "plus" and will continue to grow steadily, - he speaks. - Fluctuations of the prices is a cyclic process. After sharp recession, as a rule, sharp jump is observed. Time is money, - says the expert.
In Tajikistan, B. Umarov recommends, it is better to get the real estate in the spring, in the summer when demand for habitation falls also prices stop growing.
In any case, in opinion of experts, the real estate in Tajikistan is the most reliable and favourable investment of available assets. The nearest years the habitation will steadily rise in price. Those who has enclosed the means in the domestic real estate 2-3 years ago, have already received dividends from 100 up to 200 percent!