The Portfolio of investments 08.08.2008 18:11 Author: TAJIKISTAN: AN ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE Issue # 6 (59) July, 4, 2008
Who and on what gives money to Tajikistan?
The bulletin “Tajikistan: the economic foreshortening” represents the general review of investment projects of Tajikistan. Data are given by the State committee on attraction of investments and management of state property of the RТ.
The general portfolio of the joint investment projects which are being at a stage of realization, in 2007 made 53 projects for a total sum of 1389,76 million US dollar, including 1249,09 million dollars are the external involved resources (89,88 %), 102,57 million dollars - the contribution of the Government (7,38 %) and 38,1 million dollars - other means (2,74 %).
Credits
In 2007 the greatest sum of means by a credit part of a portfolio of investments is necessary on Export-import Bank (Peoples Republic of China) - 603,55 million dollars that makes 43,43 % from the general budget of a portfolio of investments. Further follow the Asian Bank of Development - 201,95 million dollars (14,53 %), the World Bank - 118,10 million dollars (8,50 %), Islamic Bank of Development - 76,48 million dollars (5,50 %), the Kuwaiti Fund of Economic Development - 29,75 million dollars or 2,14 %, etc.
Grants
The analysis of grant part of a portfolio of investments of the RT shows, that the greatest assistance to development of the country, within the limits of the given kind of the help, renders the World Bank. In 2007 the obligation of the given international financial organization in the form of grants made 81,02 million dollars or 5,83 % from the general budget of a portfolio of investments (49,16 % from grant parts of a portfolio). Further on volumes of the rendered help it is necessary to mention grants of Switzerland - 26,18 million dollars (1,88 %), the grant of the German Bank of Development (KFW) - 10,29 million dollars (0,74 %), grant of the Islamic Republic of Iran - 10,0 million dollars (0,72 %), etc.
For the period from 1997 prior to the beginning of 2008 the total sum of investment means according to the concluded Agreements has made 1813,46 million, including credit on realization of investment projects have made 1459,13 million dollars or 80,46 % from the general budget of investment resources, grant means have made accordingly 187,03 million dollars or 10,31 %, the contribution of the Government of the RT - 126,71 million dollars or 6,99 %, and other sources - 40,59 million dollars or 2,24 %.
For the same period the volume of development of investment means has made 1012,99 million dollars or 55,86 % from a total sum of the investment means provided by Agreements, including development of credit has made 850,31 million dollars or 46,89 %, development of grant means - 75,51 million dollars or 4,16 %, development of means under contributions of the Government of the RT - 69,13 million dollars or 3,81 % and development of means on other sources - 18,06 million dollars or 1,0 %.
For the considered period it has been mastered of credit of the World Bank for the sum of 338,75 million dollars, that makes 85,13 % from a total sum of credit resources under Agreements with the given organization. On credit of the Asian Bank of Development it is mastered 171,54 million dollars or 65,26 %, Islamic Bank of Development - 52,38 million dollars or 49,37 %.
Development of grants of the World Bank for the period 1997-2007 has made 21,43 million dollars, that correspond 20,72 % from a total sum of grants under Agreements with the given organization. Development of grants of Switzerland has made 16,27 million dollars or 59,01 %. Grants of Japan are mastered in the sum of 7,36 million dollars, or 65,42 % from the sum of the accepted obligations.
Development of investments for the period of 2002-2007
For the considered period as a whole annual development of investments has increased, in comparison with 2002 more than in 8 times. Thus the first sharp increase in volumes of development of investment means was observed in 2004, that, in particular, is connected with the beginning of an active phase of realization of following projects: restoration of a rural infrastructure (World Bank) for the sum of 6,97 million dollars, rehabilitation of a highway of Dushanbe-Kurgan-Tyube-Dangara-Kulyab (Asian Bank of Development) - 6,96 million dollars, rehabilitation of social sector (Asian Bank of Development) - 6,06 million dollars, construction of highway Shkef - Zigar (Kuwaiti Fund) - 4.87 million dollars, etc.
Further reduction in volumes of development of investments is observed. In 2006 the volume of development of investment means was reduced in comparison with 2004 - to 18,19 million dollars, from 114,81 million USD to 96,62 million dollars, thus if the volume of development of credit resources has decreased ofrom 109,22 million dollars to 76,28 million dollars, grant component of use of external resources has increased for 14,74 million dollars, from 5,59 million dollars in 2004, up to 20,34 million dollars in 2006. It has happened basically due to development of grants of the World Bank for the sum of 6,91 million dollars, of Islamic Republic of Iran for the sum of 5 million dollars and Catholic Fund for the sum of 2,49 million US dollar.
In 2007 in comparison with 2006 the volume of development of investment means has sharply increased (more than in 3 times) and has made 310,5 million US dollar. Such sharp increase in volumes of development of investments is achieved due to successful development of proceeds of credit of Export-import Bank (Peoples Republic of China) in the sum of 216,74 million dollars.
At the same time, in 2007 the increase in volumes of development within the limits of grant component of an investment portfolio, from 20,34 million dollars in 2006 up to 28,04 million dollars is also observed, that basically took place owing to increase in volumes of development of the grants given by the World bank (11,57 million dollars), the Government of Switzerland (5,06 million dollars), Catholic fund (6,23 million dollars) and the Swedish agency on development and cooperation (1,52 million dollars), etc.
The basic sectors on attraction of investments.
The greatest share of obligations is necessary on infrastructural sectors: power - 447,99 million dollars, that correspond to 35,87 % from total amount of obligations under operating investment projects, and transport - 429,62 million dollars, or 34,39 %. On these two sectors of an industrial infrastructure it is necessary of more than 70 % from total amount of all obligations under agreements in force. It is necessary to note, that such great share of obligations of these two sectors takes place basically because of two projects, which are carried out due to the credit, given by Export-import bank of the Peoples Republic of China:
- Reconstruction, rehabilitation of a highway Dushanbe-Chanak (281,1 million dollars) in transport sector;
- Construction of high-voltage transmition lines - 500 Kvt. “South-North” (267,2 million dollars) in Power sector.
At the same time, it is necessary to note, what even without taking into account these two projects parameters of volumes of obligations and development of means in sectors Transport and Power remain on the first positions in comparison with other sectors. So, obligations on another seven projects in sector Power make 180,79 million dollars, and under seven projects of Transport sector - 148,52 million dollars. It once again proves that for the Government of the RT and the international financial institutions these two sectors are the most prior at the given stage.
Further, in decreasing order volumes of obligations follow: the Agriculture and Irrigation - 157,78 million dollars (12,63 %), Water supply and the water drain - 52,29 million dollars (4,19 %), Public health services - 52,26 million dollars (4,18 %), Education} - 52,25 million dollars (4,18 %), etc.
Development of investment means on sectors in absolute and relative parameters.
The total amount of the mastered means under operating investment projects from the beginning of their realization as on 12/31/2007 makes 558,44 million dollars. About 70 % of volume of the mastered means is necessary on two sectors - Transport and Power.
The greatest volume of the mastered means at a rate of 214,83 million dollars is necessary on the Transport sector, that makes 38,47 % from the sum of the mastered means. Further follow:
- Power - 172,88 million dollars (30,96 %);
- Agriculture and Irrigation - 67,95 million dollars (12,17 %);
- Education - 29,64 million dollars (5,31 %);
- Water supply and the water drain - 25,00 million dollars (4,48 %);
- Social security and employment - 20,56 million dollars (3,68 %);
- Public health services - 15,74 million dollars (2,82 %), etc.
The greatest percent of performance of obligations is necessary on sectors of Environment - about 93 %, Social security and employment - about 89 %, Education - about 57 %, Transport - 50 %. Rather low interest of performance of obligations in sector of the Government (9,89 %) speaks that the projects, which are carried out in this sector, such as the Regional project on modernization of customs and development of the infrastructure, financed by the Asian Bank of Development (13,88 million dollars), the Project of reforming of the public sector, financed by the World Bank (5 million dollars), the Project on strengthening of the national system on statistics, financed by the Swedish agency on development and cooperation and the World Bank (4,996 million dollars), are at initial stage of realization and development of means.
The general obligations and development of means for 2007.
The general obligations under the operating investment projects in 2007, are certained at a rate of 332,86 million dollars. The volume of the mastered means for this year has made 310,50 million dollars, that correspond to 93,28 % from the sum of obligations for 2007.
Comparison of parameters shows, that the structure of development of means for 2007 differs from structure of total amounts of the financial assets mastered from the beginning of realization of operating investment projects till 12/31/2007.
So, on a share of sectors Power and Transport it is necessary 255,95 million dollars, that makes 82,43 % from total amount of the investment means mastered for 2007. Thus, actual investments into Transport for 2007, were the highest and made 132,92 million dollars that corresponds to 42,81 % from a total sum of the investment means mastered last year.
Further in decreasing order volumes of the mastered means follow:
- Power - 123,03 million dollars, or 39,62 %;
- Agriculture and Irrigation - 23,71 million dollars, or 7,64 %;
- Education - 13,66 million dollars, or 4,40 %;
- Public health services - 8,41 million dollars, or 2,71 %;
- Water supply and the water drain - 3,78 million dollars, or 1,22 %, etc.
In Agriculture sector development of means has made 101,64 % from obligations. This excess of development of investment means over obligations is connected basically with realization of the Project on restoration of agriculture of Tajikistan financed by the Asian Bank of Development (43,750 million dollars). Under this project for 2007 it has been mastered of 13,87 million dollars at obligations of 9,82 million dollars that correspond to 141,2 % of development of means to obligations. The analysis of structure of development of means by kinds of charges under the given project has shown, that volumes of the mastered means under section “Work” have made 10,67 million dollars or 154,55 % to obligations, and volumes of the mastered means under section “Goods” - 2,47 million dollars or 134,36 % to obligations. Under section of charges volumes of the mastered means have made less than 100 % from volumes of obligations.
On Transport sector development of investment means for 2007 has made 113,35 % to obligations. Research has shown, that excess of development of investments over obligations has happened mainly due to development of means under the project Reconstruction, rehabilitation of a highway Dushanbe-Chanak, financed by the Chinese Export-import Bank (295,9 million dollars). For 2007 under the given project development of investment means has made 119,82 million dollars or 109,1 % to obligations. The analysis of distribution of the mastered means by kinds of charges has shown, that volumes of the mastered means under section “Work” have made 119,55 million dollars or 109,14 % to obligations. Under other sections of charges volumes of the mastered means have made 100 % to obligations. Thus, excess of development of investments over obligations, is caused by increase in actual amount of executed works.
Categories of charges of investments.
Research of structure of development of means on categories of charges for 2007 shows, that the greatest volumes of development of investments fall to section “Civil works and construction” in the sum of 272,00 million dollars, that correspond to 87,60 % of a total sum of the mastered means.
Further, in decreasing order follow volumes of the mastered means under sections: Materials and goods 10,31 million dollars or 3,32 %; Equipment - 8,84 million dollars or 2,85 %; Consultations concerning investments - 7,19 million dollars or 2,32 %; Training - 6,07 million dollars or 1,96 %; Charges on the maintenance - 1,86 million dollars or 0,60 %; Operational/constant charges - 1,73 million dollars or 0,56 %. On other categories, charges are rather insignificant.
The analysis of distribution of the mastered means by kinds of investments shows, that for 2007 the volume of payments on capital investments has made 291,15 million dollars or 93,77 % from the sum of all means mastered in 2007, and on non-capital investments these parameters have made accordingly 19,35 million dollars or 6,23 %
Thus there is a situation when more than 90 % of financial assets of a portfolio of investment projects, basically are spent for creation and equipment of objects of an infrastructure and social sphere. Experts of the State Investment Committee consider that such picture is quite optimistic and justified, and testifies to an effective expenditure of external investment resources.
Regional component of investments.
It is necessary to note, that at writing of reports on the status of realization of some investment projects, realizing agencies for some reasons had no opportunity to correlate concrete volumes of obligations and development of investment means with corresponding areas of the republic. It concerns first of all to projects of transport and power sectors, which are connected with construction of highways, or erection of the transmition lines having the state value. In this connection, means on such objects have been carried to charges of a republican level.
It has to a certain extent affected that the significant part of obligations (124,04 million dollars) and volumes of the mastered means (135,08 million dollars) for 2007 is necessary on a republican level.
Following, on volumes of attraction and development of investment means, is Khatlon region on which obligations within the limits of investment projects for 2007 are equal to 67,12 million dollars, and development of financial assets has made 69,15 million dollars, rather high volumes of the financial parameters falling on Dushanbe (the sum of obligations - 68,69 million dollars, volumes of development - 46,65 million dollars), speak that in territory of capital are realized three projects on restoration of city system of water supply for a total sum of 43,07 million the dollars, and others two projects on reconstruction of city electric networks and reduction in losses of energy for a total sum of 32,89 million dollars. Further follow Sogd region, Districts of the Republican Submission and GBAO.
The greatest part of volumes of the mastered means of investment projects is necessary on a republican level and makes 43,50 %. Volumes of the mastered means in Khatlon have made 22,27 % from all volume of the mastered investment means, in Dushanbe - 15,03 %, in Sogd - 12,63 %, in Districts of the Republican Subordination - 5,23 % and least concerning region GBAO - 1,34 %.